The market numbers are good, providers continuously roll out new technologies, true believers abound. There are kinks to be ironed out, but the global forecast for this counterfeiting solution is definitely sunny.

A bright outlook

The latest research has indicated a growth surge in the RFID industry. According to ABI Research, revenues for global RFID markets will jump to $8.4 billion in 2012, up 21 percent CAGR from this year's $3.8 billion. The "Global RFID Market Analysis till 2010" report estimated the global industry for RFID technology to grow at over 115% in 2007 over the last year – with future growth projected mostly in the US, UK, Japan, China, and Thailand. The report also forecasted the market to grow at a CAGR of around 20.7% during 2008 to 2016.

A major part of this growth comes from established applications in the brand protection arena. And if recent headlines are any indication, RFID providers keep rolling out new solutions to prevent counterfeiting in a whole range of industries. This month, Atmel, one of the biggest players in the RFID world, unveiled the CryptoRF, touted to be the first 13.56MHz RFID devices with 64bit embedded cryptographic engine, mutual authentication capability and up to 16 individually configurable zones. They create unique "signatures" based on information that is not transmitted or allowed to be accessed in any way. Texas Instruments recently launched the RF360, the first smart integrated circuit (IC) platform that meets the rigorous demands of the contact-less government electronic identification market and enables governments to quickly and efficiently produce electronic passports and national ID cards. Philip Morris International is also rolling out a patent-pending, 2-D bar-code scheme called the Code Verification System (CVS) that incorporates an encrypted, serialized 12-character number intended to identify and authenticate each pack and carton of cigarettes.

Real-world challenges – and possible solutions

Concern about RFID's ROI. Potential ethical and privacy issues. Perceived high initial costs for setting up RFID systems. These are just some of the issues and challenges that have arisen as the RFID technology has advanced. But the question remains: How do you balance these challenges against the very real problem of the projected cost of pharmaceutical counterfeits by 2010: $75 billion worldwide?*

The upcoming Global RFID ROI 2008 event aims to address the issue of RFID's ROI. As RFID continues to mature into a powerful technology with a broad range of applications, companies want to realize the cost benefits and operational efficiencies that can be achieved by using RFID in their manufacturing, supply chain, logistics and IT operations. The conference, to be held in January 28-29, 2008 in Munich, Germany will bring together leading RFID practitioners from a broad cross section of industries who will share best practices and success stories on the real ROI behind RFID implementation. Organizers hope the event will equip attendees with the necessary information to take back and implement in their own operation to achieve real business value.

"RFID Technologies: Emerging Issues, Challenges and Policy Options," a report commissioned by the European Commission's DG Joint Research Center, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, has also proposed policy options to achieve a balance between reaping the benefits and avoiding the pitfalls associated with the technology, including an information campaign to raise awareness of RFID systems, a legal framework for establishing guidelines and best practices to build safeguards against any potential RFID risks, and further technological research to improve efficiency, robustness and security.

Finally, in an article by Howard Baldwin in the Microsoft Midsize Business Center, the author advised users to think about RFID, not in a vacuum, but as part of a process that relates to your supply chain and inventory issues…assess its value, as you would with any technology, to your particular business challenges, and be aware of both its advantages and its pitfalls. He also cited a Fortune interview in which the Federal Express CIO, when asked about RFID, quoted Bill Gates' definition of a "two-ten technology," i.e., for the first two years, it's all about hype, then disappointment, until 10 years later when people realize the technology has become embedded in daily life.

*According to Frost and Sullivan as quoted by Impinj, the UHF RFID company

Note: BPCouncil is a media partner of Global RFID ROI 2008